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A Russian invasion of Ukraine could drive up food prices and spark widespread unrest far from the front lines


That was true in large part because of the limited nature of the Russian incursion. A full-on invasion, however, could be different, with the geography of Ukrainian agricultural production placing the disruption risk especially high. A large part of Ukraine’s wheat, Smith notes, is grown in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, or regions, located just beyond the parts of eastern Ukraine that are already largely under the control of Russian-backed separatists. That puts them in the early path of a Russian march to the west.

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